Quote of the Day….. – The America’s Cup has turned into “a vulgar beach event smelling of sunscreen and french fries.” – Sailing Great and Former America’s Cup veteran Bruno Trouble letting his true feelings for Larry Ellison be known. (h/t Scott Barnard)
Minsky Moment? The economy has been largely stable with inflation under control and unemployment coming down. However, long periods of stability can be destabilizing (see 2008 crash) and the recent craziness in the bond market is raising this concern again especially as bank purchases of treasuries decline.
One area of potential future growth is Millennials coming into their own economically. One of the overriding themes of this blog has been that most of the popular narrative about Millennials is frankly bullshit. In yet another example of how hard data simply doesn’t square with the popular narrative that Millennials will remain economically stunted due to high student debt loads, a new study from credit reporting agency TransUnion found that Millennials do indeed buy cars and houses…it just might take longer.
One particularly soft area of the economy? The private jet industry. It seems that what’s bad for Russian Oligarchs (dollar appreciation, commodity deflation and sanctions against Mother Russia) is also bad for jet manufacturers like Bombardier. Break out the smallest violin in the world (for the Oligarchs, not the aircraft industry).
Commercial Real Estate
En Fuego: The commercial real estate market continues to be white hot as the amount of capital earmarked for US commercial real estate continues to grow. It’s not just domestic investors either – Foreign capital is coming into the market in a big way. It’s not just the traditional four food groups that investors are targeting. Age restricted housing is getting a lot of love as cap rates compress and investors search for yield.
Raise the Roof? Warehouse space is evolving and e-commerce users are demanding buildings 40’ and taller rather than the standard 32’. The additional height could be the difference between a premium lease rate and an empty building as companies like Walmart.com and Amazon continue to gain market share.
Despite generally rising prices and low supply, mortgage credit remains relatively tight. Want proof? US household debt is flat so far this year. That is not necessarily a bad thing but it does help to explain why home sales have been showing only middling growth this year. Foreclosure inventory has continued to fall and is now more than 65% below its peak in 2010 which cash purchases are down to 37.9%, substantially lower than the peak of 46.5% in early 2001. Both are signs of a (slowly) recovering market. Portland Oregon is one market that has become very competitive as Millennial-led demand coupled with a lack of supply leading to bidding wars.
Scammer General: Wesley Clark was a 4-star general and former presidential candidate. Today he spends his time as a paid pitchman and board member for dozens of shady penny stock companies including a money-losing grilled cheese food truck, and a hydroponic lettuce growing company run by a convicted felon. In other words, if you are tempted to invest money in any venture in which he is involved, don’t.
Chart of the Day
Going Down? The US economy just had its worst month since the Great Recession….However, it was most likely due to the slow resolution of the West Coast port debacle.
Source: Wall Street Journal
They Actually Paid Someone to Write This: The Patriots issued a rebuttal to the Wells report today. It contends that the locker room attendant who called himself “the deflator” in texts on a company phone was making reference to the fact that he was trying to lose weight. If you believe this, General Wesley Clark has a penny stock financed bridge, run by a felon that he would like to sell you.
Russian Answer to MMA: The only way that this sport could get anymore Russian is if it somehow involved a bear.
Death by Atomic Wedgie: A 34 year old guy killed his stepfather by giving him a wedgie. Seriously. This is most definitely NOT the way that I want to go when it’s my time.
Chasing Tail (Pipe): I think that this guy loves his car a little too much.
Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.
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