Landmark Links August 11th – The Big Wave

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Lead Story…. A massive amount of CMBS debt is maturing in the next couple of years, about 1/3 of which will likely be underwater.

Economics

Going Up?  The jobs report last week was solid despite wages being soft likely keeping the Fed on target for a rate hike this fall.  However: China’s currency devaluation this morning could  throw a wrench into any plan to raise rates in the near future.

This Time Really is Different: In order to understand the relative sluggishness of this economic expansion, one has to look at things in context – the Great Recession was credit collapse driven and far from an ordinary recession.

Out of Control Cost of College: The view that the Federal aid has been a primary cause of the rapid increase in college tuition is becoming increasingly mainstream.

Don’t Believe the Hype: One of our major themes since we started this blog has been debunking the narrative-driven, inaccurate coverage of Millennial housing preferences in the media.  It turns out that employers are buying into Millennial b.s. narratives as well, which could lead to problems down the road.

Commercial

909 Pride: The Inland Empire industrial market remains incredibly strong.

Storm Clouds: Highly leveraged mortgage REITs are already taking a pounding in expectation of rate increases.

Residential

Sound Familiar? – International Edition:  An Australian pizza delivery guy has built up a large portfolio of homes by pulling money out as values increase.  This will end well with China struggling and commodities – which play a large role in the Australian economy – plunging.

Long Live the (New) King:  The Subprime leader is a hedge fund and the focus is more on auto and personal loans that mortgages.  See Also: The mortgage market still basically sucks for risky borrowers despite some improvement.

Not Immune: Framing lumber prices have been falling, just like the rest of the commodity space.

Rent Check: Here’s what $1,000 per month can rent you in San Francisco right now – a shipping container.

Drought

Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Can we engineer ourselves out of the California drought?

Profiles

Silicon Valley: 20 years ago, Netscape was the first truly insane IPO of the tech boom era. See Also: Cannabis is Silicon Valley’s new (smoking) hot sector.  However, there is an increasingly strong case that Silicon Valley could be in for a slowdown in 2016.

Chart of the Day

Subprime is booming but is less about mortgages.

WTF

Heroes to Zeros: Hulk Hogan and Bill Cosby are just the latest 80s stars to fall from grace.

Eagles Fans:  A Philadelphia Eagles fan decapitated a friendly hitchhiking robot from Canada that was making it’s way across the US as part of an experiment because that’s what Eagles fans do.

My Cat Ate My Bacon: This is NOT what the 911 system was intended for.

Tasty: This mug shot of a woman who ate crack cocaine just before getting arrested looks exactly how you would expect it to look.

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

Visit us at Landmarkcapitaladvisors.com

Landmark Links August 11th – The Big Wave

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