Landmark Links October 9th – Difficult to Move

beach

Lead Story… Thus far, gains in the labor market have not translated to a meaningful move up in new single family housing starts.

Economics

Fading Fast: Treasury markets aren’t expecting a rate hike anytime soon.  See Also: more signs of slower US growth.  And: HSBC’s Steve Major, who has been pretty much spot on regarding interest rates over the past few years is now forecasting that the 10-year Treasury will be 1.5% by the 3rd Quarter of 2016.  His forecast is definitely in the minority when it comes to economists.  That being said, he has a much better track record than the “nowhere to go but up” crowd.

Deleveraging: Household debt service ratios are extremely low by historical standards.

Confused: Traditional labor market measures do a poor job at measuring what’s going on with Baby Boomers as they retire .  The result may be that the labor market is stronger than it appears.

The Great Migration: Here’s a great summary of the cities where Americans are moving to….and deserting.  There are a few surprises in here.

Commercial

Office Space: 2015 is on pace to be the best year for the US office market in terms of absorption and dropping vacancy since before the Great Recession.  See Also: Office rents are rising at their fastest pace in 7 years.

Residential

Lost in Translation: So far, gains in the labor market have not translated to a meaningful recovery in new single family housing starts.

Blogger Smack Down: Real estate perma-bear Mark Hanson says that the market is in a larger bubble than 2006 pointing to unorthodox demand with unorthodox capital from institutional and foreign cash buyers.  John Burns calls that claim “ridiculous” referencing the overall lack of easy credit that characterized the housing bubble.  OC Housing News did an epic take-down of Hanson’s bubble call as well.

Free Agents: The age of the of rock star mercenary real estate agents is upon us.

Coming to America: Chinese buyers are still pouring cash in to US real estate.  See Also: The rise of Chinese home builders in the US.

2006 Redux: Home equity is back up as prices rise and homeowners are starting to use their homes as ATMs again.  In related news, people have very short memories. Wonderful. 

Markets 

909er News: Both Christopher Thornberg and Larry Roberts agree that the Inland Empire is most definitely not in a housing bubble.

Profiles

Fantasy vs Reality: A few weeks ago, we posted an article about how daily fantasy leagues aren’t all that they seem – 91% of the winnings go to just 1.3% of the players.  The next logical issue?  A front running scandal in which an employee at one of the major websites took non-public information to win over $300k on another major daily site.  Now the NY Attorney General has opened an inquiry into the largely unregulated industry and even some whales are all but begging the daily sites to better self regulate before it’s too late.

Recipe for Disaster: One could virtually write a book about all of the crimes against humanity that have been committed inside the walls of Chuck E. Cheese restaurants.  Now the struggling restaurant chain is planning on adding booze to their menu in order to help attract young moms.  This doesn’t end well….

Overloaded: Amazon Prime is wreaking havoc on college mail rooms which were originally designed to deal with letters, not boxes.

Dystopia: Airbus’s new patent application for airplane design could be the future of air travel and it looks like hell.

Chart of the Day

WTF

Daily Dose of Karma: Watch a douche bag in  a $400k Lamborghini ignite his car resulting from revving his engine too hard while his buddy tries to take a photo with a selfie stick.  Every now and then, there is justice in this world.

Fashion Trend: The latest trend in China is people wearing plastic fruit and vegetables on their head.  No, seriously.

The Future is Bleak: Watch a drunk asshole college kid throw a temper tantrum in a dining hall over mac and cheese.  Update: he was expelled.  Stuff like this makes me seriously re-consider recycling, shopping local and using mass transit because if this is what the next generation is like, who gives a damn what kind of planet we leave them.

Give Me Pizza or Give Me Death: An 800 lb man was kicked out of a Rhode Island hospital where he was in a weight loss program for ordering a pizza.  Because pizza is really, really good.

Headline of the Year Candidate: I’m not capable of writing anything about this story that would be considered safe for work so just click on the link and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

Visit us at Landmarkcapitaladvisors.com

Landmark Links October 9th – Difficult to Move

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