Quote of the Day…“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” – Lao Tzu
It’s only a few days into 2016 and you’ve probably been inundated by a bunch of bs predictions from some otherwise intelligent people. If you haven’t bothered to read any of this, I’ll spare you the suspense: I can’t predict the future. Neither can you and neither can they. The most intelligent bloggers/authors that I follow typically post a list of questions or scenarios of what could happen in the new year rather than making guesses…I mean predictions. One of those bloggers is Larry Roberts aka Irvine Renter (the source of the above quote) who writes the always informative OC Housing News Blog. This year, Larry’s “forecast” laid out several different interest rate scenarios and explained what could happen to real estate in California under each one. Another is Bill McBride at Calculated Risk. Bill’s annual Ten Economic Questions for the New Year column. is a must read, IMO.
What to Watch: The Fed (finally) raised interest rates in December. The best indication of whether or not we will see a recession is the Yield Curve or spread between the 2 and 10 year Treasury Bond. If it continues to drop, watch out. See Also: Has the dollar peaked?
Exodus: Puerto Rico is a complete mess and people are fleeing the island territory in record numbers.
Office Space: Here’s why office employment growth has not led to robust leasing and rent growth – a shift in the types of businesses that are leasing space.
Survivors: Contrary to conventional wisdom, not all malls are dying. Here’s how the best of breed are thriving.
Industrial Outlook: Look for ever-growing e-commerce and a wider Panama canal that has been 8 years in the making to drive the US industrial market in 2016.
The Return: DR Horton’s success with its lower cost Express houses has other large builders poised to enter the starter home segment in 2016. There is a ton of demand here and not many homes being built in the space. If large builders can figure out a way to build homes that are affordable, it would be a massive positive for the industry so long as it can be scaled.
Shaky Ground: Here are the housing markets that look the riskiest in 2016.
Poof: There are approximately 500,000 fewer bank jobs than there were in 2008.
Go For It: Meet the high school football coach who never punts (his team doesn’t even have a punter on it’s roster). The numbers on this are fascinating and the fact that no 2nd tier college programs have tried it yet is most likely due to career risk.
Kicked in the Butt by the Glut: Here’s whats next for major oil producing countries now that the market for crude has crashed.
Chart of the Day
Boom: This is probably the best hover board explosion/fire video to date. Why anyone would buy one of these is beyond me. (h/t Tom Farrell)
You Gonna Drink That? Saudi authorities closed down a shop when they found out the owner was peeing in drinks that he was selling. However, that’s not even the most disturbing part of this story. The drinks were supposed to contain 100% pure CAMEL URINE, a traditional drink in Saudi Arabia.
Headline of the Year Nominee: When an article is titled “Man Stabbed by 400-Pound Bearded Woman,” there isn’t much more to say. And, no it wasn’t in Florida.
Darwin Award: A man in San Diego walked off of a cliff and fell to his death because he was distracted texting on his cell phone.
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