Landmark Links July 8th – The Plunge

fatcrash

First things first: Hayden Charlotte Deermount was born at 11:14am on July 5th weighing 7lbs and 13 oz. Baby Hayden and Mrs Links are both doing great! This is also Hayden’s fist blog post in a way since I wrote almost the entire thing with her sleeping on my lap….

Lead Story… Commercial real estate investors are rushing for the exits in British property funds as post-Brexit uncertainty about the future of London as a global financial center is on the rise. Withdrawals have been halted in several funds and the Pound is now at a 31 year low (and this could just be the beginning for the embattled currency). The situation could get worse before it gets better. The biggest beneficiary will likely be the US commercial real estate market which could see even further cap rate compression (yes, seriously). See Also: RBS and Lloyds have the most exposure to UK commercial real estate and could have issues if it continues to tank. 

Economy

Much Ado About Nothing? Pro Brexit politicians are dropping like flies adding to uncertainty.  Tyler Cowan of Marginal Revolution lays out 7 possible Brexit scenarios. The spoiler here is that there is a very strong argument that Brexit will not ever actually happen. See Also: Brexit fears have set a scenario in motion the could bring the yield on the benchmark 10-year US treasury note plunging to 1%.

Sea Change: Great infographic from the US Census Bureau shows just how much the “typical” 30-year old has changed from 1975 to 2015.  The difference is stark to say the least.

Commercial

Imagine That: Plateauing rents in the luxury apartment space have some developers putting new developments on hold as they acknowledge that trees can’t grow to the sky. Imagine that: housing cost inflation slows when you add more units.  Shocking. See Also: LA rents were flat from May to June according to Apartment List.

Residential

Not From The Onion: A Seattle house deemed “too dangerous to enter” sold for $427,000 after an insane bidding war with 41 offers after it listed for $200k. Perhaps the craziest part of this is that $427k for a tear down in a good neighborhood in coastal California sounds like a steal. Consider it today’s reminder that affordability is relative in local markets.

Not A Lot Remaining: Lot supply is still incredibly tight in the western US and at its lowest level since 1997.

Refi Boom: Plunging interest rates sent refinances soaring to an 18-month high even though mortgage rate spreads over the 10-year treasury are still high.

Profiles

LOL: Snapchat’s army of loyal teenage users aren’t happy that their parents are starting to use the app.

Out of Touch: Microsoft’s attempts at intern outreach are a perfect example of what happens when your grandparents try to be “hip.”
Chart of the Day


WTF

Brawl-Mart: 30 person brawl in an upstate NY Walmart that included baseball bats and a 17 year old throwing a can of food at a 52 year olds head resulted in several arrests. Nothing about this story is remotely shocking or even newsworthy except that it didn’t happen on Black Friday.

Can You Move that Plane So I Can Get a Better Shot? Idiots are increasingly putting pilots and firefighters at risk by flying drones over wildfires in an effort to get “cool” Instagram photos.  One drone almost collided with a plane late last month in Utah leading to the grounding of all firefighting planes during a blaze.

Ok Then: The brother of deceased former Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar is asking Nexflix for a portion of the profits from the next season of Narcos, a show based on Escobar’s life. Doubt it will work but I suppose that the logic here is that If you don’t ask, you don’t get.

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

Visit us at Landmarkcapitaladvisors.com

Landmark Links July 8th – The Plunge

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