Landmark Links September 20th – Young Man’s Best Friend

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Lead Story… If you follow the news even casually, you probably know that Millennials are less likely to own cars and homes or be parents than prior generations.  However, there is one area where Millennials are out ahead: Pets.  The Washington Post published the results of a study of pet ownership among young people and the results were somewhat stunning (emphasis mine):

Three-fourths of Americans in their 30s have dogs, while 51 percent have cats, according to a survey released by research firm Mintel. That compares to 50 percent of the overall population with dogs, and 35 percent with cats.

The findings come at a time when millennials, roughly defined as the generation born between 1980 and 2000, are half as likely to be married or living with a partner than they were 50 years ago. They are also delaying parenthood and demanding flexible work arrangements — all of which, researchers say, has translated to higher rates of pet ownership.

“Pets are becoming a replacement for children,” said Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University and author of “Generation Me.” “They’re less expensive. You can get one even if you’re not ready to live with someone or get married, and they can still provide companionship.”

You read that correctly, 75% of American’s in their 30s have dogs!  That is a yuge percentage and makes this self-proclaimed crazy dog person quite happy.  As with most publications though, WAPO seems to be implying that Millennials’ penchant for animal companionship makes them somehow different from the rest of “us.”  Indeed, if Millennials were going to forego family life permanently in favor of living with only dogs or cats it would have dire demographic implications.  Instead, I would suggest the pet ownership trend fits nicely with my theory about Millennials: they aren’t any different from prior generations, they are just taking longer to hit certain milestones than previous generations did.  Human beings need companionship and pets fill that gap before young people are ready to start families.  The increase in pet ownership is a good thing.  There are a ton of healthy benefits to having a pet as a family member, not the least of which is reducing stress.

Why am I so certain that dramatically increasing pet ownership among young people isn’t a harbinger of demographic doom? Well, for one, I’ve lived it.  I was born in 1979 so I’m not technically a Millennial but I didn’t get married until later in life.  I rescued a Black Labrador named Shadow when I was 24 who was my best friend for 10 years.  Despite my attachment to my dog, I ended up getting married in my mid-30s and had kids soon after. Shadow passed away several years ago and Pepper, a 2 year old Golden Retriever is now an important member of our family.  Also, I can’t imagine a scenario under-which we wouldn’t have a dog.

All that being said, there was one segment of the article that really frightened me (emphasis mine):

Millenials were also twice as likely than Baby Boomers to buy clothing for their pets, a phenomenon Richter chalks up to the prevalence of social media.

“The clothing is, for them, an opportunity for performance — they put it on their dog or cat, take them for a walk, post a picture on Facebook,” Richter said. “It’s increasingly about getting a digital stamp of approval.”

On second thought, I take back everything that I just wrote.  Maybe Millennials are the hipster weirdos that the press makes them out to be after all.

Economy

Nada: The reason why the stimulus from low oil prices never boosted the economy – it was 100% offset by the reduction in energy investment.  Mea Culpa on this one.  I was dead wrong.

Crossroads: The Fed is basically in the dark when it comes to the relationship between “full employment” and inflation in today’s economy.  As we approach what was traditionally considered “full employment,” they have a decision to make.

Commercial

Out of the Shadows: Shadow lenders are stepping up to fund development deals as regulators force banks to pull back on commercial real estate exposure.

See Ya: Mall owners are totally over department stores and not sad to see them go as retail tenant mix remains in flux.  But See: Nervous bond investors are hedging their exposure to malls with mortgage derivatives.

Residential

Building Up or Building Out: Awesome time-lapse graphics from the Washington Post this past weekend on density in major urban areas over time and the conundrum that cities face when it comes to keeping housing affordable: do you build up or do you build out?  See Also: Some suburbs are trying to add urban-style development projects to attract young workers and the employers who covet them.

Profiles

Always Be Closing: How Wells Fargo’s high pressure sales culture spiraled out of control and led to a massive checking account scandal.

Fleeced: Back in 1999 former recalled CA governor Gray Davis gave away the farm to public employee unions that had supported his election bid in the form of increased pension benefits based on the bullshit assumption that  CalPERS’ annual returns would average 8.5% forever. Davis sold benefits increase to taxpayers by claiming it would cost them nothing since all of the increase would be borne by CalPERS’ return on investment.  Needless to say, things didn’t go as planned.  Today the unfunded liabilities total $241 billion.

Battle of the Buzz: How the alcohol and pharmaceutical industries are bankrolling the fight against marijuana legalization.  See Also: There is a land rush going on in some of California’s worst real estate markets and commercial pot is the reason.

Chart of the Day

Europeans are not as happy with big-city living as commonly believed.

WTF

Florida Grudge Match: Nothing says Florida quite like an octogenarian brawl on the shuffleboard courts. (h/t Steve Sims)

Buy Gold: A notorious runaway Russian robot that has escaped it’s lab twice has been was arrested by police at a political rally.  And so it begins…

Somebody Walks in LA: Meet LA’s first “People Walker,” a bearded hipster and wannabe actor who will go on a walk with you for $7/mile. (h/t Ingrid Vallon)

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

Visit us at Landmarkcapitaladvisors.com

Landmark Links September 20th – Young Man’s Best Friend

Landmark Links August 5th – Suicide Pact

Niagra Falls

Lead Story… Vancouver is about to tank it’s residential real estate market after they instituted an astronomical 15% tax on real estate purchases by foreigners.  The worst part may be that existing contracts were not grandfathered in to the new law.  This led to a near-shutdown of the BC land registration system as realtors worked overtime to close before the tax took effect.  Going forward, many of the escrows that didn’t close are likely to fall out as the tax proceeds will exceed released deposits by a substantial amount in some cases.  The impact of such a tax will have massive and chaotic impact as it reverberates through the greater Vancouver market and could become a text book example of the old saying: “be careful what you ask for because you just might get it.” (h/t Darren Fancher) See Also: How Chinese billionaires fueled the epic Vancouver real estate boom.  As a point of reference for just how hot the Vancouver real estate market has been, this picture is worth more than 1,000 words:

Vancouver housing prices

Economy

Aging in Place: Americans over 65 (and increasingly over 75 as well) are staying in the work force well into their retirement years and it’s often about more than just cash flow.  Contra: Aging  US population is hurting both productivity and workforce growth as baby boomers retire.

Bass Ackwards: The best paid CEOs run some of the worst performing companies.

Commercial

Bad Optics: At it’s best, the EB-5 Visa Program, which allows qualified, wealthy foreigners to obtain a green card in exchange for investing $500k or more in a job creating enterprise is a win-win for both investors and developers.  However, the program hasn’t been without controversy and new allegations of developers defrauding foreign investors are not going to help.

Taking Matters Into Their Own Hands: Facebook pledged to build at least 1,500 apartment units for the general public (not including housing for FB employees) in Silicon Valley.  The social media giant is becoming an apartment developer in an attempt to generate support for it’s expansion plans, which call for an adding 6,500 new employees in an already dramatically under-supplied Bay Area market.

Let’s Make a Deal: As new apartments flood the downtown LA market, landlords are increasingly offering rent concessions that were nowhere to be found up to recently.

Residential

Chilled: The Manhattan luxury condo glut has led to an ice-cold land market on the formerly red-hot island.

Water, Water Everywhere…: It’s a seller’s housing market but almost no one is selling primarily because it’s hard to find a replacement house, leading to tight inventory.  See Also: Home ownership is now at a 5-decade low.

Profiles

Crash Proof: How driverless cars could threaten insurers’ earnings.

Lurking in the Shadows: Auction house Sothebys is becoming a player in the shadow banking space.

Podcast of the Day: Malcolm Gladwell’s latest Revisionist History podcast is about the true story behind uncontrolled acceleration accusations leveled against Toyota in 2009 that led to a 10 million car recall and $1 billion fine.  The real story is fascinating – Toyota was a scapegoat – and should be a must-listen for anyone who gets behind the wheel.

Chart of the Day

WTF

Roaming Charges: Japanese Olympic gymnast Kohei Uchimura, the defending gold medalist in the men’s all-around competition got hit with a $5,000 phone bill (which his carrier later agreed to reduce substantially) due to the fact that he: 1) Apparently has a Pokemon Go addiction and 2) Didn’t bother to disable the roaming feature on his cell phone while in Brazil. To make matters worse, he had a 0% chance of actually capturing a Pokemon as the game has not yet been released in Brazil.  That’s a painful hit to the wallet but this also feels like a great endorsement opportunity.

Getting Kids Involved in the Political Process: Mayor Anthony Silva of Stockton, CA was recently arrested and charged with providing alcohol to minors at a youth camp that he runs because, well, Stockton.

You Gonna Smoke That? A man from Orlando Florida was recently arrested when police mistook his Krispy Kreme doughnut for meth.  There’s a great cops and doughnuts joke in there somewhere (h/t Chris Gomez-Ortigoza).

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

Visit us at Landmarkcapitaladvisors.com

Landmark Links August 5th – Suicide Pact