First off, I want to wish all of you a happy belated Thanksgiving. I’m thankful for all of you, the loyal readers of Landmark Links for sticking around over the first few months of this blog. Here’s some long weekend reads to help you recover from your food hangover.
Lead Story… They say that demographics are destiny and many of the macro level trends that are taking place today have strong demographic underpinnings. Example A: more young adults are living with their parents now than before the recession (demographic explanation: it’s because there are more 18-24 year olds now than there were during the recession). Exhibit B: China’s workforce is shrinking, putting their economy in peril (demographic explanation: it’s because their population is aging rapidly due to their asinine one child policy). Exhibit C: the US workforce participation rate is still falling despite economic expansion (demographic explanation: this has everything to do with the Baby Boomers nearing retirement age).
Economy
Big Short: Hedge funds now have their largest oil short positions in 2015. See Also: The energy downturn has spread beyond the oil patch.
Bad Medicine: So-called “Dr. Copper” used to be an excellent barometer of economic activity. That is no longer the case.
Leapfrog: Emerging markets are now outspending mature ones when it comes to adoption of solar.
Storm on the Horizon: Some very large sovereign wealth funds have started reducing their government debt positions in expectation of economic reflation.
Commercial
Re-positioning: Several big fund managers are pivoting back to core investments and away from opportunistic ones.
Ghost Towns: What the death of American malls mean for investors. See Also: shrinking malls are getting a makeover. And: struggling malls are pressuring their tenants to stay open on Thanksgiving.
Residential
Feedback Loop: There is a compelling case that high housing prices brought on by highly restrictive zoning in our most productive regions lead to low interest rates, which then lead to even higher housing prices (as opposed to the more popular view that low interest rates are directly responsible for higher housing prices).
Long Slog: Despite the recent run up in house prices it could take 17 years to return to peak prices on an inflation adjusted basis.
Alternate Universe: Only in the perverse world of realtors (or NAR economists) could it be a great time to buy and sell at the same time.
Muted: Home equity is back in a big way but is having a very muted affect on consumption.
Profiles
Worthless: Treasury is still trying to decide whether or not it should ditch the penny.
Brain Drain: Uber is now poaching Goldman Sachs investment bankers.
Always a Bull Market Somewhere: The market for Star Wars toys is booming.
Eternal Optimists: Chinese investors are particularly quick to forget major market crashes as their stock market rebounds.
Chart of the Day
WTF
Moderately Overpriced: If you spend $400 on a pair of boxer shorts then you are an idiot.
Can You Spot the Irony: A man with the last name Miller was run over by a beer truck that he tried to steal.
Pre-gaming: A woman got arrested for losing it on a Denny’s waitress after being told she couldn’t share her $4 all-you-can-eat pancakes. Apparently she was getting ready for Black Friday.
Some things Never Change: Black Friday was as much of a shit show as it always is.
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